Looking ahead for Eric: to the South Col

(Edited to add: As I was writing this on Friday early evening, Pacific time, I referred to "tomorrow" even though it is already "tomorrow" in Nepal. Just as I was about to press "publish" I checked Eric's GPS and see that he's already on the move! So, anywhere I refer to "tomorrow" below, you can pretty much translate that as "right now" for them.)

Winds are currently still high at the summit, but look promising for summit attempts on May 23 and May 24.

Eric and the team are planning on heading for the South Col (Camp 4) early tomorrow morning. The South Col is another iconic location on the mountain, certainly one you've heard of if you've watched any Everest movie. There's a fairly big spot for tents up there (I read that it is about the size of two football fields). At that point, the climbers are sleeping 2 or 3 in a tent, because of the difficulty of getting infrastructure that high.

Photo: Himalaya Alpine Guides

Eric is using oxygen, as almost all climbers do these days. (Peter had intended to use oxygen too, which I found to be a relief since it is so much safer, and--I hadn't realized--is very helpful in keeping them warm.) They're able to change the flow rate depending on whether they are sleeping or exerting themselves. Eric snapped this photo down in the valley, I can't attest to the veracity, but no matter what, there's a lot less oxygen up there!

Photo: Eric Gran

As for potential crowding, it is a bit of a guess as to how many people are poised to summit in the next few days. It does look like the larger teams are still waiting in Everest Base Camp, hoping for a wider weather window. While there appear to be many teams at C3 right now, it is anyone's guess how many people are left on each team. After such a long season, many people have dropped. Alan Arnette guesses that there are anywhere between 150 and 300 people hoping to summit in this current window. He implied that if managed well, those kinds of numbers could be summit safely without extreme crowding and waiting, especially if they are spread over two days.

Here's what I can see about the other teams:

Madison Mountaineering is a Camp 4 and said conditions getting there (wind and snow) were pretty tough. They are planning on taking a rest day there and so should therefore likely be up for a summit attempt on the same day as Eric.
CTSS has all their teams at Camp 3, some who have been there a few days, others who arrived today. They are also planning to try for Camp 4 tomorrow.
IMG is also at Camp 3, planning on a 6 a.m. departure for Camp 4.
7 Summits Club (Russian) had planned to go to Camp 3 today. While I don't see confirmation that that happened, given the good conditions, it probably did.

CTSS did a really great video that shows the terrain and conditions up the Lhotse face and in Camp 3, where Eric is now, up to the South Col: